Reply To: Using seasonal forecasts in water management

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The intention of UPV is to use seasonal forecasts though a modelling chain to advise in advance our client and the interested parties about a better way to manage water resources and its allocation in different uses for the coming months, taking into account the probabilities of having more or less water resources in the basin. For example, in the case of agriculture these predictions could be valuable for decisions about the type of crops to grow in the season and the need of insurances, if is expected a period of water stress for the crops. Thus, the aim of this analysis is to provide reliable estimations to our client in order to advice all users about the procedure in a water stress or drought scenario.

However, in the exploration of the Maps interface of Seasonal Forecasts, when we remove results without skill in precipitation, temperature and river flows, the area not masked is very small in the Jucar River Basin, this means that the area without skill in this basin is very big. This leads us to think about the reliability of the seasonal forecast in this area. If we are right, the lack of skill could lead to not trustable results. So, we would like to know the opinion of data providers and the other project members about this issue. We will appreciate any suggestion and feedback you may have for improving our plan.