Reply To: Communicating Confidence

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Alexandros Ziogas

Communicating uncertainty is indeed a tricky part because the clients usually prefer a straight answer, a uniquely explained result, a “single value”. However, uncertainty is exactly the opposite.
We took advantage of the SWICCA demonstrator graphical presentation of climate change results in order to convey the nature of uncertainty to our clients. We found out than once all scenarios are presented then it is easier to be accepted that all scenarios are based on current scientific knowledge and they are all equally possible. Afterwards, clients are more willing to look for trends in the results and to discuss actions based on a cloud of results which are similar rather than look for a unique answer. In fact, the initial doubts on the scientific ability to predict future change is raised when the equal probability of different scenarios is understood. We believe that SWICCA demonstrator can be a great tool for conveying the nature of uncertainty which characterises climate change.